As the all of our first bit of research, the big panel off Contour step 1 examines the typical relationship cost because of the season for a couple of age groups away from widows (decades fifty in order to 59 and you can 60 so you’re able to 70) anywhere between 1968 and you may 1995. Into sixty- so you can 70-year-olds , i tell you a decrease in the wedding price following the 1977 passing of what the law states. This indicates that widows decades 60 otherwise older delayed marriage ceremonies into the 1978 when you look at the expectation of one’s laws to get active. marriage pricing into the widows amongst the age of 50 and 59 are declining around the laws change, the requested reaction to regulations change.

Committee Good (detailed study) examines average relationship pricing from the chosen many years 1968–1995 . To own widows old sixty–70 , there is a reduction in the brand new remarriage price following passage of the legislation into the 1977, suggesting widows aged 60 or older put off marrying from inside the 1978 during the anticipation of one’s laws becoming proficient at 1979. There is certainly a boost in the newest age great at 1979, which implies one to a good number of feminine will have well-known so you can get married, but failed to pursue marriage at that time from the punishment about Societal Security measures.

Having widows decades 50–59 , relationships rates refuse within the legislation changes, yielding new expected reaction to you to definitely transform. Remember that other variables, for instance the full lowering of matrimony rates during this time, aren’t accounted for.

Committee B (regression overall performance) provides the regression outcome of attention. Throughout times, the marriage rates to own widows under years sixty was after that less than the latest standard season as compared to speed to have widows who will be during the the very least within sixty. For widows significantly less than ages sixty, what the law states did not have extreme effects.

not, this detailed studies will not be the cause of other factors, specifically, an overall reduction in relationship prices during this time

Getting widows over age sixty, the data reveal that in 1977, its marrying rate are 2 % beneath the baseline year, plus in 1978 (the season regulations is passed) the wedding rates was thirteen % below the brand new baseline season. Those pricing is actually statistically distinct from one another from the six % top, giving support to the chance one to widows over age 60 put off wedding up until their matrimony penalty was removed. Within the 1979 (the season legislation turned into active) the wedding price is actually 20 percent high during the standard-the most significant positive departure on shot period. (Full regression email address details are in Appendix Table step one.)

Notes: The latest numerator ‘s the adjusted number of marriages regarding ages category and you will 12 months regarding says that were throughout the MRA having all of the decades anywhere between 1968 and you will 1995 which said earlier in the day relationship condition on the matrimony permits. New denominator is the level of widows in the many years group and you will 12 months in every states. Look for Appendix Table 1 having info on coefficients and you can simple errors.

There is certainly a boost in brand new age great at 1979 implying that numerous feminine could have liked so you can get married, but did not do so by the penalty about Societal Security measures

ln ( marriage rate age , year ) = ? + ? ? ( year ) + ? ? ( year * at least age 60 dummy age , year ) + ? ? ( age ) + ? , where < age>

Our depending changeable is the natural journal regarding unmarried-years and you may 12 months marriage pricing to have fifty to 70 yr old widows. We regress the journal relationship price with the seasons dummies, omitting 1968; a discussion title anywhere between fru latvian annually and a beneficial dummy to own if or not the marriage speed is for feminine at least years sixty; and, dummies each age class, omitting this-50 category. With 28 several years of studies and you may 21 age groups i have 588 observations.